B&B Capitol Strategies Update: Ballots Go Out, Races Tighten, and New Laws Arrive Oct. 1

 

Three things stand out this week. Statewide races that were expected to be safe are tightening, which makes November less predictable than it looked a month ago. A new batch of state laws takes effect Oct. 1. And the fight over SB 686 and agricultural enclaves is heading to court and likely back to the Legislature in 2027.

 

 

Voting is officially underway. Supervisors of elections have received the first mail ballots from military and overseas voters. Only about 150 of the nearly 200,000 sent have come back, so early partisan returns tell us very little. Domestic mail ballots go out by Oct. 1, including more than 146,000 in Hillsborough County alone. State officials expect roughly 8 million ballots to be cast by Nov. 3.

 

The governor’s race has become more competitive than many expected. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the contest between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly from likely Republican to lean Republican. Florida may also go without a televised gubernatorial debate for the first time in about 50 years. Both campaigns accepted invitations, but not to the same events, and each blames the other. Meanwhile, Donalds removed most references to President Trump’s endorsement from his campaign website, and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, his primary runner up, formally endorsed him.

 

The Cabinet races are tightening as well. A poll commissioned by Democrat Annette Taddeo’s campaign shows her tied with CFO Blaise Ingoglia at 42 percent, echoing another recent survey. Ingoglia still holds a commanding financial edge, with about $5.45 million on hand compared to roughly $108,000 for Taddeo.

Closer to home, a poll commissioned by Mercury Public Affairs puts the countywide Hillsborough County Commission District 7 race within the margin of error. It shows Democrat Aileen Rodriguez at 44 percent and Republican incumbent Joshua Wostal at 41 percent. In Congressional District 14, U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor has agreed to two debates with Republican nominee Mike Beltran, who wants more, including one on television.

 

On the ballot measures, the Florida Realtors backed committee supporting Amendment 3, the property tax proposal, raised another $8 million in two weeks, bringing its total to $18 million. A recent St. Pete Polls survey shows support at 45 percent, well short of the 60 percent needed to pass. The governor supports the amendment, while major law enforcement and firefighter groups oppose it because of potential losses in local revenue.

 

 

A smaller second batch of 2026 legislation takes effect next week. It includes an expanded definition of criminal gang member under HB 429 and new felony penalties for involving minors in animal fighting under HB 559. SB 1332 creates an annual registration system for certain habitual violent offenders. Other changes include tougher penalties for xylazine and some nitrous oxide sales, clearer rules on license plate frames, and a new felony for using false identity statements to take possession of a rental. Separately, the final scheduled increase under the 2020 minimum wage amendment takes effect Sept. 30. It brings the rate to $15 an hour and $11.98 for tipped workers, with future increases tied to inflation.

 

 

St. Johns County says it will challenge SB 686, this year’s law that makes it easier to develop qualifying agricultural enclaves at densities matching nearby parcels. Commissioners voted 3 to 2 to deny certification for a roughly 4,462 acre Ponte Vedra project owned by the Davis family, and the developer plans to appeal. The county will seek a stay in court and take its concerns to the 2027 Legislature. Why it matters: this is an early test of the new certification process and a likely preview of local pushback next session, so anyone with development interests should watch it closely.

 

In Tampa, the City Council approved the roughly $100.4 million South Howard Flood Relief Project on a 4 to 3 vote. Mayor Jane Castor has pledged that the city will stay closely engaged with affected businesses during construction. In Pasco County, commissioners cleared the way for a 35 acre surf park in Zephyrhills as part of the Two Rivers expansion, which also includes 900 multifamily units.

 

 

The State Board of Education adopted what it calls first in the nation artificial intelligence rules for K through 12 schools and the Florida College System at its first meeting under new Commissioner Henry Mack. Commissioner Mack also said the department is weighing additional tools to keep objectionable books out of school libraries while legal challenges to the 2023 law continue. The department is also pursuing a rule governing dual enrollment reimbursement. Why it matters: schools and colleges should expect new compliance expectations on AI and library materials, as well as possible changes to how dual enrollment is funded.

 

Locally, Hillsborough County Public Schools is making its case for renewing the half penny sales surtax for school capital needs, pointing to HVAC, roofing, drainage, technology, and security. In higher education, Commerce Secretary J. Alex Kelly was named president of Pensacola State College, continuing a trend of administration officials moving into college and university leadership. An administrative law judge also recommended dismissing state charges against a Duval County teacher over social media posts after the death of Charlie Kirk. The Education Practices Commission will make the final decision.

 

 

Florida’s unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent in August, its third straight monthly decline, though it remains above the national rate of 4.1 percent. State economists expect it to rise to about 4.9 percent before stabilizing.

 

The Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles confirmed a breach of its DAVID driver database and traced it to compromised credentials belonging to a Plant City Police Department employee. A hacking group claims it took more than 200,000 records, and the investigation is ongoing. Attorney General James Uthmeier also previewed legislative pushes on scam calls and texts and on AI enabled impersonation, both likely to surface in the 2027 session.

 

 

Tampa Bay watering restrictions have been extended through March. Manatee County approved easements protecting about 1,500 acres of working ranch land through the state’s Rural and Family Lands Protection Program. With dengue cases up nearly 150 percent this year, mosquito control districts are turning to drones, radiation techniques, and genetically modified mosquitoes. And in Tampa, former Mayor Bob Buckhorn continues his door to door campaign to return to City Hall.

 

 

On Sept. 29, a federal appeals court hears arguments in the Escambia County school library book case. The minimum wage reaches $15 on Sept. 30. On Oct. 1, the new laws take effect and Hillsborough mails its domestic ballots. J. Alex Kelly starts at Pensacola State College on Oct. 19, and Election Day is Nov. 3.

As always, please reach out if you have questions about how any of this affects your priorities. We will keep you posted as the election approaches.